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Causal Analysis Essay 1
* Examples
Why in the 1980s and 1990s has the cost of a college education increased faster than the cost of living?
Why do minority groups in American society continue to suffer discrimination?
The decline in SAT scores has been attributed to the rise in television viewing among teenager, but there must be more.

* Characteristics
Problem may be a phenomenon (something notable about the human condition or social order)
or trend (a significant change occurring over some period of time -- increase, decrease; rise in number of babies born with AIDS or decline in the number of applicants to law school)
Presents or defines its subject proposes specific causes to explain the subject argues that these causes are likely or plausible, not definitive, explanations for the subject supports each cause with examples, facts, statistics, or anecdotes
Supports each cause with examples, facts, statistics, or anecdotes anticipates readersÕ questions, objections, and alternative causes

* Possible Topics Trends: declining voting rate, the increase in Christian evangelicals on school boards, increases in violence in some cities and decreases in others, the decline in public services like libraries, declining support of public schools, the increase in home schooling, increase of ethnic tensions

* Are these stated as problems and as specific as they can be?
More and more students hold jobs
Many student athletes are using steroids
More people are needed for jobs in technical fields
Gun control
Child abuse

* Possible Topics Troubling social trends the increase inequality of wealth among Americans, increasing reliance by employers on contingent workers, increasing violence among young men, increasing suicides by young men, increasing numbers of children born to unmarried teenagers, increasing medical costs, college education costs, increasing resentment of immigrants, increasing # of working mothers

* Purpose and Audience
Purpose of causal analysis essay: to convince the reader that the proposed causes are plausible
So a coherent, logical, authoritative argument must be constructed
Audience: what is the readerÕs degree of agreement/disagreement, knowledge of subject

* Presentation of the Subject
Subject should be described quite extensively (using specific details, examples, and establishing that it actually exists by citing facts, statistics, and statements by authorities), especially if readers are not in agreement or are uninformed
Trend subject -- a writer must always demonstrate that the trend exists might have to explain the trend thoroughly if reader is uninformed history of the trend may be presented

* A Convincing Causal Argument
The causal argument -- presentation of the causes, presentation of evidence in support of each cause, and anticipation of objections and alternative causes. Effects should not be mistaken for causes a proposed cause may turn out to have originated only after a trend started should not contain errors in reasoning
In proposing causes writers need to be sensitive to their readers causes should be presented in a logical order writers must avoid emphasizing the obvious

* Providing Support for Proposed Causes
each cause must be strongly supported writer may use examples, statistics, factual cases, and anecdotes

* Anticipating ReadersObjections and Preferred Causes
Writers must anticipate readers possible objections to and questions about the proposed causes and must show that they have considered (and rejected) any other possible causes writers may need to consider alternative causes that their readers might prefer, and reject them

* Choose A Subject
The problem of your research paper
Define and explain the problem
AND prove that it exists you must nearly always do research to demonstrate that it actually exists

* Consider Causes
List possible causes immediate causes (those responsible for making the problem begin when it did)
Remote, background causes (those from before the problem began)
Perpetuating causes (those that sustain or continue the problem)
Obvious causes
Hidden causes

* Selecting the Most Promising Causes
Review your list select 5 or 6 causes that seem to provide a plausible explanation of your subject

* Analyzing Promising Causes
Next to each potential cause listed, explain why it is real and important Is it a necessary cause?
Without it, would the problem still exist?
Could it alone have caused this subject?
Would this cause always lead to phenomena or trends like this one?
Can you think of any particular anecdotes or examples that demonstrate the cause's importance?
Have any authorities you know of suggested that it is an important cause?
Is it actually a result of the subject rather than a cause?
Is it a remote or background cause or an immediate cause?
Is it a perpetuating cause, continuing to sustain the trend?
Is it an obvious cause or a hidden cause?

* Researching Your Subject
Do you know enough about the subject or should you research details?
Research so that you can confirm it is a trend not a fad.
Recall statistical evidence
 

* Testing Your Choice Does the subject interest you?
Do you believe you can describe/define it in a way that will interest readers and show them that it is a problem?
Were you able to come up with several causes that together provide a plausible explanation for the problem?
Are the causes you have come up with not simply obvious ones?
Can you research the subject further?

* Researching Causes
Research is helpful to confirm or challenge your own ideas
to identify further causes
to add to your own explanation
to provide support for causes you want to argue for
to identify causes your readers may prefer to the ones you find plausible
to reveal some of the reservations readers may have about the causes you suggest

* Considering Your Readers
Who are they?
What do they know about the subject?
Do they believe it exists?
What are their attitudes about the subject?
Will they be in agreement? Skeptical but convinceable? Resistant?
What causes would they be most likely to believe?
Which cause might they be skeptical of? Why?

* Developing Your Argument
Try to argue in writing for your most plausible causes (anticipating your readers' responses)
develop your argument with your readers in mind

* Planning and Drafting
Set Goals
know your readers
pick an interesting introduction (personal, citing a case or statistics)
explain subject
demonstrate it really exists
decide how many causes to present
Decide the order to use to present your causes
Decide how much evidence is needed for each point determine possible readers' objections
refute the objections
end the essay strongly -- complete, non-repetitive paragraph

* Possible Outline #1
Presentation of subject
first proposed cause with support and refutation of objections,
if any second proposed cause with support and refutation of objections, if any (etc.)
conclusion OR
 

* Possible Outline #2
Presentation of the subject alternative causes and reasons for rejecting them
proposed causes with support and refutation of objections, if any
conclusion

* Possible Outline #3
Presentation of subject proposed causes with support and refutation of objections, if any
alternative causes compared with your causes
concluding restatement of your proposed causes

* Drafting
You are dealing with probabilities, not certainties; therefore, resist being 'final and conclusive'--
just assert plausibility
enliven your writing and appeal to readers' interests and concerns
outline is just a plan.
Be flexible if you have difficulty refuting objections,
try a dialogue between yourself and a reader
Need more info?
Research or find an expert to interview, survey a group, etc.